One problem with the cultural-lag theory is that it fails to account for the effects of social power. For example, workers who sought compensation for the cost of industrial accidents did not have nearly as much power to influence lawmakers as the owners of the machines did. When this power imbalance changed as a result of the labor movement, it became possible to enact legislation that would protect the workers.
The lags described by Ogburn can be at least partially reduced by the process of technology assessment, or efforts to anticipate the consequences of particular technologies for individuals and for society as a whole. The massive plan to reduce air pollution in the Los Angeles Basin described at the beginning of the chapter requires careful assessment. According to the National Environmental Policy Act of 1972 and related state laws, any major action by a public agency that affects the environment must be assessed for its impact on the environment and on the citizens involved. Laws that require technology assessment especially those that require corporations as to abide by the finding of such assessment-tend to increase the power of citizens in communities affected by technological change. They are therefore a source both of conflict and of movements for social reform. In the Los Angeles case, a number of small, inadequately funded environmental organizations were able to force the California Environmental Policy Administration to fund the air pollution plan.
Theories that view technological innovations as a source of social change must also recognize that technological changes do not occur at an even pace. Some analysts, particularly the Soviet economist N.D.Kondratieff, believe that technological innovation follows a cyclical pattern. They have shown that the growth of particular industries produces a “long boom,” a period of economic expansion and prosperity that lasts about twenty-five years and is followed by a period of decline and depression of about the same duration.
It may be that the new technologies of computers and automation will began another long boom or wave of economic growth in the next decade, as many people in advanced industrial societies hope. But it is clear that in the late 1970s the previous long boom, stimulated in part by the availability of cheap energy, was over. A new economic boom therefore may depend on new developments in energy technologies.
10. The Quest for Energy
Throughout human history a central aspect of technological change has been the quest for new sources of energy to meet the needs of growing population. That quest has given rise to a succession of energy technologies, each more sophisticated than the last. Animal power gave way to steam-driven machinery, which in turn was replaced by the internal-combustion engine. Reliance on oil and its derivatives, especially gasoline, encouraged the growth of powerful energy corporations, which often lobby government agencies for assistance in developing new technologies like nuclear energy. And today the technologically advanced nations are attempting to control the fusion reaction, in which hydrogen atoms are fused into helium, thereby producing an enormous release of energy. The implications of this energy technology, if it can be achieved, are staggering. Fusion promises to bring about a major revolution in human existence. It could make possible the colonization and exploration of space, the rapid development of the less-developed nations, the elimination of energy technologies based on oil and coal (which pollute the environment), and much else. But the effort to develop fusion power is also indicative of a fundamental crisis in modern life: the dwindling supply of energy resources.
The problem of oil depletion is only the most recent in a serious of energy crises that began with the depletion of the supply of game animals through hunting in Paleolithic times. The shortage of meat created conditions that spurred the development of agriculture. Later, in the waning years of the Roman Empire, a shortage of labor power to grind flour encouraged the use of water power. The industrial revolution had its origins in the depletion of the supply of wood during the Renaissance. Coal was plentiful, and experiments with its use as an energy source led to the development of new techniques for producing energy and new machinery and processes for manufacturing goods. Today, as supplies of oil and coal diminish, the search for new energy sources continues. 感谢您阅读《ScienceandTechnolo 》一文，出国留学网(liuxue86.com)编辑部希望本文能帮助到您。
