19.The following appeared in a letter from the manager of a rock band named Double Rice.
"One year ago, tickets for Double Rice's concerts in stadiums around the country took, on average, at least 24 hours to sell out, if they sold out at all. But the band has been enjoying a surge in nationwide popularity among 14 to 25 year olds, and the 30,000 tickets for a recent concert in Megalopolis sold out in 12 minutes. Clearly the ticket sales in Megalopolis are a result both of the band's increased popularity and of the advertising campaign run in Megalopolis by the Ad Lib advertising agency. Thus, in order to ensure that the band's success in Megalopolis is repeated across the country, the band should hire Ad Lib to duplicate the Megalopolis ad campaign on a nationwide scale."
A、DR在全国的演唱会门票平均需要至少24小时销售完，并不意味着DR在M地区是如此。在M地区，DR可能拥有比其他地区更多的歌迷或者追溯着，或者，DR的门票可能比较昂贵，而M地区的居民普遍比较富裕，能够支付得起。可能去年在M地区的销售速度比12分钟还要短。
B、即使DR在M地区门票销售也是如此，那也只是一年前的了，正如作者所说，现在DR在14至25岁的人群那种已经掀起了一股热潮，因此在M地区12分钟售完门票未必就和广告商有关。即使广告商不宣传，DR的追随者也会踊跃购买门票。作者并没有说明其中的联系。
C、即使DR门票在12分钟内售完和AL公司的广告活动有关，那也仅是在M地区，在其他地区就未必能够成功，不一定适合在全国范围内推广。AL公司可能对M地区居民的喜好比较了解，而AL公司未必对其他地区的居民的喜好有所了解。
20.The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Balmer Island Gazette.
"The population of Balmer Island increases to 100,000 duing the summer months. To reduce the number of accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians, the town council of Balmer Island should limit the number of mopeds rented by each of the island's six moped and bicycle rental companies from 50 per day to 30 per day during the summer season. By limiting the number of rentals, the town council is sure to attain the 50 percent reduction in moped accidents that was achieved last year in the neighboring island of Torseau, when Torseau's town council enforced similar limits on moped rentals."
A、作者并没有交待当前这六家公司日出租数，如果该数本来就小于30，那么这则规定将不起任何作用。
B、作者错误地假设了B岛的交通事故会增加是因为道路上摩托车和自行车数量多引起的。事实上可能是由于该岛的道路交通设施，也可能是由于行人不遵守交通规则等等
C、作者并没有交待T岛交通事故下降50%的基数，如果该基数很小的话，则不能够说明T岛的该措施是成功的。例如基数只有2的话，即使只是减少1，也会有50%的下降比率。即使T岛的交通确实变得安全了，也未必是由于实行了该措施导致的，可能是由于T岛去年的气候比较好，雨雪天气少。即使确实是该措施导致，那也是去年的数据，今年未必能够同样有效。
D、即使该措施对于T岛今年同样有效，B岛确实是由于道路上摩托车和自行车数量多引起交通事故，B岛采取T岛一样的措施后也未必能够成功。T岛和B岛的情况不尽相同。B岛采取限制后，并不一定能够减少道路上的自行车和摩托车的数量，人们可能会选择自己去购买自行车或者摩托车。
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