新gre写作题库2012：argument提纲（11）

"Five years ago, at a time when we had difficulties in obtaining reliable supplies of high-quality wool fabric, we discontinued production of our deluxe alpaca overcoats. Now that we have a new fabric supplier, we should resume production. This coat should sell very well: since we have not offered an alpaca overcoat for five years and since our major competitor no longer makes an alpaca overcoat, there will be pent-up customer demand. Also, since the price of most types of clothing has risen in each of the past five years, customers should be willing to pay significantly higher prices for alpaca overcoats than they did five years ago, and our company profits will increase."

A、五年前人们喜欢穿A外套，并不表示现在人们还会穿A外套。这五年人们的穿衣喜好会改变，或者已习惯去其他外套。竞争者不生产可能从侧面说明该外套已不再受欢迎。

B、其他面料涨价了，A面料不一定涨。如果A面料也涨了，消费者也未必愿意付更高的钱购买A外套。

C、即使消费者愿意花费更高的价钱购买A外套，该公司也未必能够盈利。经济学常识，利润等于营业额减去成本。生产成本，5年为在市面上出现，需要很大的成本来建立品牌。

22.The following appeared in a memo from the president of a company that builds and sells new homes in Steel City.

"Over the past five years, the population of Steel City has increased by more than 20 percent, and family incomes in Steel City have risen much faster than the national average. Nationwide, sales of houses priced above $150,000 have increased more than have sales of lower-priced houses. Such data indicate that we should make changes in our business to increase company profits. First, we should build fewer low-priced houses than we did last year and focus instead on building houses designed to sell at above $150,000. Second, we should hire additional workers so that we can build a larger total number of houses than we did last year."

A、调查类错误。怀疑该全国调查样本选择的随机性。如果不随机，则调查结果不具有参考价值。即使该调查取样随机，也是过去5年，并不表示现在以及今后也能如此。

B、即使该调查结果能够反映现在以及今后，那也是全国的，并不一定适用于SC地区。正如作者所说的，SC的居民收入增长高并不意味着SC的居民愿意购买高价房。

C、即使SC的居民愿意购买，该公司也未必能够盈利。经济学常识，利润等于营业额减去成本。建造高价房可能要比低价房高很多的成本，如果该成本多于销售收入的增长，则不会产生盈利，甚至会初选亏损。